It was the Sydney Kings who won NBL 26 after a dramatic overtime win in a deciding Game 5 against the Adelaide 36ers. However, not a single member of the NBL’s 13-expert panel picked the Kings to repeat as champions. This is a testament to the depth of talent in the NBL, with several championship contenders this season.
Ahead of the opening game between Melbourne United and the Adelaide 36ers, here is a breakdown of each roster, and where I think they will finish.
* Projected starting 5s are at full strength, regardless of current health.
10th: Cairns Taipans
Predicted Starting 5: Jaylon Brown, Reyne Smith, Jaylin Galloway, Jack McVeigh, Keanu Pinder
There are a few teams I considered for the Wooden Spoon, but I’ve decided to go with the Cairns Taipans here. There is a lot to like about this roster, especially the frontcourt depth with Jack McVeigh, Jonah Bolden, and the returning Keanu Pinder. Pinder’s dynamism in the paint paired with McVeigh’s three-level scoring make this one of the most exciting 4/5 partnerships in the league. Jaylin Galloway moves over from Sydney after being an essential part of the Kings’ championship team from last season, impressing as a shooter and when attacking closeouts. There is also a lot of deep-range shooting on this roster, with players like Galloway, McVeigh, and Reyne Smith, who missed much of last season through injury.
Jaylon Brown, not Jaylen Brown, joins as the club’s new import point guard. Brown is an undersized guard who is a dynamic scorer. However, he seems like someone who could benefit from playing next to another initiator, placing a lot of emphasis on Luke Paul to perform. The 17-year-old Next Star is one of the most exciting prospects in Australian basketball, with terrific size and IQ at the point guard position. Any success Cairns is to have this season would also require a step up from Malique Lewis, who joins the Taipans as an import after previously being a Next Star with the Phoenix. Overall, there is a chance for Cairns to have a successful season, but a lack of playmaking to set up the likes of Galloway and McVeigh may cost them.
9th: New Zealand Breakers
Projected Starting 5: Parker Jackson-Cartwright, DJ Vasiljevic, Josiah-Jordan James, Sam Mennenga, Charles Bediako
New Zealand’s season could be decided by whether their swings on DJ Vasiljevic and Kouat Noi pay off. At their best, both are elite microwave scorers, but last season both were inconsistent, streaky shooters. The positive is that both will have one of the league’s best playmakers in Parker Jackson-Cartwright to set them up. Jackson-Cartwright will surely benefit from the improved spacing around him, setting up driving lanes where he can penetrate and find the open man. Sam Mennenga and Charles Bediako form the most physically imposing frontcourt in the league, although the Breakers will hope Mennenga can improve as a three-point shooter.
Josiah-Jordan James carries a key role as the team’s main point-of-attack defender, which is why his torn hamstring will hurt the team for the first 4–6 weeks of the season. Apart from James, the team lacks any elite perimeter defense, which is concerning for a Jackson-Cartwright/Vasiljevic backcourt. The team also lacks a secondary playmaker, which may see Izayah Le’Afa given extended opportunities. Canada head coach Gordon Herbert enters the league after time with Bayern Munich, as well as winning the FIBA World Cup with Germany in 2023. He is perhaps the most accomplished coach in the league, but will have his work cut out for him if the Breakers are to return to the playoffs.
8th: Tasmania JackJumpers
Projected Starting 5: Taran Armstrong, David Johnson, Bryce Hamilton, Josh Bannan, Will Magnay
Tasmania recently signed Scott Roth to an extension, keeping him with the club until NBL 29. Roth is a fantastic coach who has always made the most of the talent around him, but has an uphill task this season, especially until Bryce Hamilton returns from injury. Hamilton quickly established himself as one of the best scorers in the league last season, and will likely miss the rest of 2026 while he recovers from an ACL rupture. To cover him, Tasmania landed Taran Armstrong fresh off a stint in the EuroLeague last season. Armstrong will be given the keys to the team and be a constant triple-double threat. Next to him, David Johnson and Dakota Mathias will provide a scoring punch that will be necessary until Hamilton’s return.
The X-factor for this team is Will Magnay, who anchors the defensive unit. The most important thing for Tasmania will be keeping him healthy, as their playoff aspirations will likely evaporate in the event of a long-term injury. With much of the roster being the same as last season, Roth will hope that they have enough offensive firepower to survive until the new year, when the return of Bryce Hamilton could see them make a late playoff push.
7th: Brisbane Bullets
Projected Starting 5: Arnas Velička, Max Mackinnon, Nate Hinton, Jaylin Williams, Tyrell Harrison
One of the toughest teams to predict are the Brisbane Bullets, who head into this season with an almost entirely new team. Their fortunes will certainly rest on Arnas Velička, an experienced 6’5″ Lithuanian point guard. Velička is a true floor general, whose arrival will surely help set up Tyrell Harrison for a massive season. Their imports are rounded out by Nate Hinton and Jaylin Williams, two balanced wings who can stretch the floor. Hinton in particular will have a major role to play as the team’s main point-of-attack defender. Their fortunes will also be helped by the appointment of former Sydney Kings coach Will Weaver, who has spent the last few years in various NBA assistant coaching roles.
The main concern for this Bullets team is the lack of quality depth. With Max Mackinnon, Taine Murray, Harry Rouhliadeff, and Jacob Holt, there is a lot of reliance on young, inexperienced players to support their import trio. Mackinnon will be a player to watch in his first professional season after averaging 15.7 PPG on 37.6 3P% at Louisiana State University. The Bullets are definitely contenders for the Wooden Spoon, but I have a lot of confidence in Arnas Velička to be an MVP candidate and spearhead the offense towards a play-in push.
6th: South East Melbourne Phoenix
Projected Starting 5: Skylar Mays, Nathan Sobey, D’Shawn Schwartz, Yannis Morin, Jordan Hunter
After losing to Adelaide in the deciding game three of the semi-finals last season, South East Melbourne have undergone a massive roster change. Their biggest loss was DPOY John Brown III, who was a frightening presence for opposing teams. Their marquee signing of this season is Skylar Mays, a 6’4″ point guard with over 100 games of NBA experience. Mays is a do-it-all type of guard, whose elite three-point shooting should see him thrive in a backcourt with Nathan Sobey. The Phoenix will need Sobey, who is now 36, to have another elite season if they are to contend this year.
A positive for the Phoenix, however, is their immense depth all over the court. At guard, Mays and Sobey will be backed up by Angus Glover and Dash Daniels, who looks set for a much larger role than he had at Melbourne United. In the frontcourt, new imports D’Shawn Schwartz and Yannis Morin will be supported by Jordan Hunter, Akech Alir, Hunter Goodrick, and Tanner Krebs, who also joins from United. Almost everyone on this roster can stretch the floor, a huge bonus for Mays and Sobey, who will feast on the space inside the arc. The biggest question for this team is who will step up to take over the defensive hole left behind by Brown III, but Josh King is known to be a defensively adept coach who gets the best out of his teams on that end of the floor.
5th: Illawarra Hawks
Projected Starting 5: Milton Doyle, Tyler Harvey, Wani Swaka Lo Buluk, Kelan Martin, Sam Froling
After winning NBL 25, Illawarra had a disastrous 2026 campaign fueled by injuries and high roster turnover. Justin Tatum has clearly tried to replicate that championship-winning team from two seasons ago by bringing back Darius Days and signing Milton Doyle. While Doyle may not be a natural point guard, his size and isolation scoring ability make him an ideal fit next to Tyler Harvey, and they also have Will Hickey to take on some playmaking duties. The main difference in the roster this year is the improved long-range shooting, led by Kelan Martin, an NBA veteran. It felt like the Hawks hadn’t quite replaced the shooting of Kell and Hyunjung Lee from the championship year, but Martin has shown an impressive ability to shoot off the catch and off the dribble in preseason. Wani Swaka Lo Buluk has also shown improved touch from deep, and expect Johny Narkle to get opportunities as a corner shooter and energizer bunny off the bench.
The main concern with this roster is the lack of size in the frontcourt. Sam Froling returning to full health is huge, but Mason Peatling is the only other viable option at centre. It seems possible that Darius Days could be cut at some point in the season for a taller backup 4/5 type, especially given he has looked some distance away from being in game shape. There is also a lot of pressure on Swaka Lo Buluk and Dan Grida as the only strong point-of-attack defenders on the team, although both are some of the best perimeter stoppers in the league.
4th: Perth Wildcats
Projected Starting 5: Brandon Knight, Elijah Pepper, Dylan Windler, Kristian Doolittle, Jo Lual-Acuil Jr.
Perth finally solved their point guard crisis by signing NBA veteran Brandon Knight this week. Knight will not have too much pressure on him to be an elite scorer, as the priority will be for him to set up the rest of the starting lineup. Kristian Doolittle and Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. remain the best frontcourt pairing in the league, and both will hugely benefit on the offensive end from Knight’s playmaking. Alongside Dylan Windler and Elijah Pepper, Perth now have a starting group who can all score and shoot the three at a high level. The long-range shooting will also be helped by Anthony Dell’Orso, who shot 36.9% from deep across two seasons at Arizona.
The starting lineup does lack a true point-of-attack defender, which may pave the way for Alex Higgins-Titsha and Jaron Rillie to receive extended opportunities. To lift their ceiling from last season, the Wildcats will need a better three-point shooting season from Windler, whose clip dropped to 36.2% last season after shooting 39.2% on a higher volume in NBL 25. If everything goes right, Perth projects as one of the most dynamic offensive firepowers in the league, but their defense will determine how high their ceiling is.
3rd: Adelaide 36ers
Projected Starting 5: Bryce Cotton, Flynn Cameron, Bul Kuol, Zylan Cheatham, Isaac Humphries
Adelaide have kept much of their roster the same after coming so close to winning the finals last season. Incoming Head Coach Trevor Gleeson reunites with Bryce Cotton, who won three championships together at the Perth Wildcats. Gleeson will aim to tie Brian Goorjian for the most championships by a head coach in NBL history (6). The only change to Adelaide’s roster is the signing of Bul Kuol from the Sydney Kings. Kuol is one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, something Adelaide desperately needed coming into the season. As he recovers from an ACL injury, however, Adelaide will need Flynn Cameron and Matt Kenyon to play major defensive roles.
John Jenkins III may be the X-factor in his first full season with the club, after we saw his long-range shooting thrive in last season’s playoffs. Adelaide’s success will depend on Cotton, last year’s MVP. When Gleeson coached Cotton at Perth, he used him off the ball a lot to prioritise his scoring ability. At Adelaide so far, however, Cotton has served as the primary ball handler, so it will be interesting to see how Gleeson approaches the situation. If Cotton continues his MVP form, Zylan Cheatham continues to dominate the paint on both ends, and Kuol returns well from injury, Adelaide will be one of the favourites come March.
2nd: Melbourne United
Projected Starting 5: Cole Anthony, Luke Travers, Joe Ingles, Sam Waardenburg, Josh Oduro
The biggest signing of the NBL offseason was United landing Cole Anthony, a microwave NBA scorer. Anthony is an elite shot-creating guard who will no doubt be in MVP conversations this season. Alongside him, Luke Travers returns from 2 seasons with the Cleveland Cavaliers and looks primed for a career year. He averaged 18 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks in the NBL Blitz, and has the ability to play and guard 1-5. The biggest standout with this team is their size and positional versatility, with the option to put out lineups where Travers is the second shortest player on the court at 6’8″.
New import Josh Oduro gives Melbourne a dynamic lob-threat who will dominate the paint, and pair well with Sam Waardenburg. Waardenburg is an offensive juggernaut, but will need to prove he can stay healthy after playing just 8 games with Cairns last season. The same applies to Joe Ingles, who returns from the NBA after hardly playing in his last two seasons. Still, he brings elite shooting and IQ, and his playmaking will definitely help Cole Anthony to thrive as a scorer. Defensively, Shea Ili is under a lot of pressure to be their primary perimeter defender, particularly when the older and slower Ingles and Chris Goulding are on the court. Goulding struggled to shoot the ball efficiently last season, but will surely have greater spacing available to him with all the talent around him.
1st: Sydney Kings
Projected Starting 5: Kendric Davis, Matthew Dellavedova, Torrey Craig, Xavier Cooks, Andrew Carr
The reigning champions enter this season with a surprising amount of roster turnover, particularly on the wings. Losing Jaylin Galloway, Kouat Noi, and Bul Kuol puts immediate pressure on Makuach Maluach to have a career year, particularly from beyond the arc. Maluach is helped by Torrey Craig’s return for his first full season with the club, where the duo will aim to cover the scoring void left by Galloway and Noi, and the defensive void left by Kuol. After narrowly missing out to Bryce Cotton last year, Kendric Davis enters this season as my MVP favourite. Davis is just too fast, agile, and skilled for NBL defenders, and has also improved as a playmaker since joining the league.
Keli Leaupepe’s injury has seen him replaced by import Andrew Carr. With Tim Soares departing, Carr fills Sydney’s need of pairing Xavier Cooks with a mobile big who can stretch the floor. Off the bench, Harry Wessels also provides size and rebounding after 4 seasons at Saint Mary’s. On the wings, Sydney will rely on Tyler Robertson to continue to shoot the ball efficiently, as well as rookie Jayden Stone who impressed with his athleticism in pre-season. The Sydney Kings are in a strong position to defend their title, but will need improvements from various role players in order to do so.
Champions: Melbourne United
My finals prediction is that Melbourne United will beat the Sydney Kings in four games. Ultimately, United has too much star power and depth for me to predict otherwise, although it is tough to rule out Kendric Davis and Bryce Cotton. My only concern with United is their ability to stay healthy, but if they do, I see them taking home the NBL 27 championship.
