Wallabies vs Springboks: Perth Preview & Prediction

Bok Blitz Looms as Wallabies Bank on a Bold Backline

Venue: Optus Stadium, Perth | Date/Time: 27 September, 7:45pm AEST | Referee: Andrea Piardi

The Lowdown

Rassie Erasmus has torn up the Baltimore blueprint. Fresh off beating the All Blacks 43-28 to claim the inaugural Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry trophy, the Boks coach has made 13 changes to that starting side — only Eben Etzebeth and Ethan Hooker keep their jerseys. Nine of the match-23 were involved in that Baltimore win, so this isn’t a second-string outfit, it’s a rotation with serious depth behind it.

The headline act is at captain. Andre Esterhuizen becomes the 68th man to lead South Africa, a hybrid centre-loose forward who’s earned the armband on the back of his form for the Sharks. Etzebeth, meanwhile, will take the field on 147 caps, extending his own record as the most-capped Springbok ever, while Malcolm Marx, the reigning World Rugby and SA Player of the Year, is six caps shy of triple figures off the bench. Jasper Wiese brings up his half-century of Tests the same way. Pieter-Steph du Toit and Damian de Allende have been sent home to rest, a nod to a brutal recent workload rather than any loss of form.

Across the field, Les Kiss has thrown a genuine curveball. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii starts on the wing against the Springboks for the first time, Len Ikitau shifts out to outside centre, and Hunter Paisami, prized for his ability to carry the ball flat and still find the right option, partners him at 12. The bigger talking point is the bench: a 6/2 forwards-backs split, the first of the Kiss era(can someone find a previous game we did this). It loads up physicality for the closing stages but leaves Ben Donaldson without a recognised fly-half or fullback behind him, if he goes down, it’s Lonergan, Harry Wilson or Tupou stepping in on the fly.

Here’s the candid bit: the numbers actually flatter Australia. They’ve scored 30 tries in their last five outings to South Africa’s 16, with a +95 points differential against the Boks’ +17, and they’ve started fast, racing to 10 points first in all five. But that run came against Argentina, Japan and Italy, not the All Blacks three times running, which is South Africa’s recent diet. Add in the so-called Armageddon Squad waiting on the Springbok bench, Marx, Ox Nché, Lood de Jager and Wiese among them, and the form line looks a lot less one-sided than the try count suggests. History backs that read too: this fixture is 97 Tests deep, South Africa lead 53-41 with three draws, and remarkably, Perth itself has been dead even, 4 wins apiece with 2 draws across ten meetings here, though the Boks took the most recent one 30-12 in 2024.

South Africa, ranked world No. 1 to Australia’s No. 7, remain overwhelming favourites. Erasmus himself has been careful not to undersell the hosts, pointing out that Australia poses a completely different threat to New Zealand and arrives full of momentum, with physical forwards and an exciting backline of their own. Kiss, for his part, has leaned into the occasion, framing a Test against the top-ranked side in the world as exactly the kind of challenge that sharpens a group. Around the fanbase, the mood is split down the middle, genuine excitement about the new-look back three and Ikitau’s switch to 13, real nerves about that bare cupboard at fly-half, and at least one camp openly bracing for the Nuclear Bomb Squad to blow the game open in the last quarter.

Prediction

South Africa’s cap count, bench firepower and record of shutting down comebacks in this fixture make them the side to beat, even with the market trimming their price through the week. Australia’s line speed and early-game aggression should make this competitive into the third quarter, but the Boks’ extra gears late on should tell. Prediction: South Africa by 3 (though The Underdog while be howling for the opposite).

Match Squads

Wallabies

1. Angus Bell
2. Brandon Paenga-Amosa
3. Allan Alaalatoa
4. Josh Canham
5. Jeremy Williams
6. Rob Valetini
7. Fraser McReight
8. Harry Wilson (c)
9. Ryan Lonergan
10. Ben Donaldson
11. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
12. Hunter Paisami
13. Len Ikitau
14. Max Jorgensen
15. Tom Wright

Reserves: 16. Billy Pollard 17. Aidan Ross 18. Taniela Tupou 19. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto 20. Tom Hooper 21. Carlo Tizzano 22. Tate McDermott 23. Harry Potter

Springboks

1. Jan-Hendrik Wessels
2. Johan Grobbelaar
3. Zachary Porthen
4. Eben Etzebeth
5. Franco Mostert
6. Paul de Villiers
7. Elrigh Louw
8. Marco van Staden
9. Herschel Jantjies
10. Handre Pollard
11. Ethan Hooker
12. Andre Esterhuizen (c)
13. Canan Moodie
14. Edwill van der Merwe
15. Aphelele Fassi

Reserves: 16. Malcolm Marx 17. Ox Nche 18. Wilco Louw 19. Lood de Jager 20. Jasper Wiese 21. Morne van den Berg 22. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu 23. Quan Horn

Full teams via the Wallabies squad announcement and Springboks team release. Rankings sourced from World Rugby; kick-off at Optus Stadium.