NRL Grand Final Preview & Live Match Thread: Roosters vs Knights

From Spoon to Spotlight: Newcastle’s Fairytale Faces Sydney’s Steel

Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney | Date/Time: 4 October, 7:30pm AEST (Qld| Referee: Adam Gee

The Lowdown

Last season, Newcastle collected the wooden spoon. On Sunday night, they run out at Accor Stadium in front of a sold-out crowd expected to be around 80,000, with a premiership on the line. Nobody pitching that script would be believed.

The Knights’ wild ride. The Newcastle Knights finished 7th and limped into the finals having conceded 46 and 44 in their last two regular-season outings. Then they knocked off the Rabbitohs, beat the Warriors 12-10 in Auckland in front of the biggest rugby league crowd New Zealand has ever seen, and downed the Panthers 22-14 while playing over half the game with 12 men. It’s the club’s first Grand Final in 25 years. Prop Tyson Frizell waited 305 games for his first, the longest wait in NRL history. Coach Justin Holbrook rebuilt his career after being sacked by the Gold Coast Titans and has given this group a calm, confident streak. Kids like Jermaine McEwen, Francis Manuleleua and Cody Hopwood are playing like nobody told them about the pressure of finals footy, and Andrew Johns has been in tears over the whole thing. The club’s merch store sold so much it had to shut up shop to restock, and travelling supporters gathered at Martin Place to greet the team.

The Roosters’ rocky road. The Sydney Roosters are favourites, and the roster explains why. Daly Cherry-Evans was recruited as the veteran half to strengthen a championship roster, James Tedesco is enjoying a late-career revival, Sam Walker is one of the league’s most flamboyant talents, and prop Naufahu Whyte and centre Robert Toia both made the Dally M Team of the Season. The 2019 echoes are everywhere: Tedesco, Daniel Tupou, a veteran half near the end of his career (Cherry-Evans now, Cooper Cronk then), plus Victor Radley, Angus Crichton and Nat Butcher. Trent Robinson has reached the finals in 13 of 14 seasons and is back in a Grand Final for the first time since 2019. Win this one and he becomes the third coach to win his first four Grand Finals, after St George player-coaches Ken Kearney and Norm Provan, and the first non-playing head coach to do it. The wobble is that they lost three straight before the finals, including a 20-50 hammering by the Rabbitohs, before smashing the Sharks 46-10 and the Dolphins 36-20. Utility Connor Watson is out with concussion.

On paper. It’s close, with a tilt. Both sides complete at 77%, the Roosters tackle at 89% to Newcastle’s 87.5%, and Sydney have conceded 550 points this year to the Knights’ 625. Over their last five, the Roosters’ average winning margin is 26, while Newcastle’s is 6.7. Sydney win big and Newcastle win ugly. The Roosters lead the head-to-head 37-14 across 51 meetings since 1998 and took both clashes this year, 38-24 in Round 7 and 23-22 in Round 21.

The Ponga puzzle. Captain Kalyn Ponga is Newcastle’s trump card and the best individual player on the field. He has 14 try assists from 18 games, and in the finals he has done the hard yards, with hit-ups and chasing the ball, rather than just the razzle-dazzle. He also ran straight over Moses Leota against Penrith. Cooper Cronk’s read is that wherever Ponga goes the ball follows, so the Roosters almost have to set their defensive line on his side first and worry about the other side later. That puts the centres on notice. Toia has missed 60 tackles in 23 games and Billy Smith 25 in 17, and Ponga is expected to target Toia’s edge with Bradman Best. If they slide, Ponga gets to take on a half. If they come in and misjudge it, they’re in sin-bin territory. If Ponga is quiet on Sunday, it’s because those two centres nailed it.

Nawaqanitawase in the sky. Mark Nawaqanitawase plays his last NRL game before heading to rugby union, and he’s the kind of player who leaves a mark. His intercept try against the run of play put the Roosters in front against the Dolphins. The danger is the cross-field kick from Cherry-Evans or Walker, with Greg Marzhew one-on-one under the high ball. The Knights have two fixes. They can bully the kickers with the middle forwards and get Best back to swarm, or they can copy Penrith’s 2024 Grand Final plan against Melbourne’s tall wingers and let him catch it, then swarm him as his feet hit the ground.

Crossland’s hole. Hooker Phoenix Crossland is suspended after a four-week ban for the hip-drop tackle on Nathan Cleary in the preliminary final. He made 55 tackles against the Warriors and hunts loose balls like a man possessed. In steps Harrison Graham, 25, who has played 19 games this year with only two previous starts and never more than 65 minutes in one.

Old mate at halfback. Sandon Smith knows this opposition. He was Walker’s understudy at the Roosters before being moved on at the end of 2025 to make room for Cherry-Evans, and he only became Newcastle’s starting halfback after Dylan Brown’s season-ending injury in Round 21. His quick tap and try against Penrith showed he can handle the moment, but the Roosters know every strength and weakness in his game. Beside him, 22-year-old Fletcher Sharpe, a Cessnock product like Andrew Johns, is tipped as the next great playmaker.

Pressure points. Over their last five, the Knights have won 75% as underdogs and are unbeaten in night matches. Accor Stadium has been close to a coin flip for both sides, with the Knights winning 50% of their 34 games there and the Roosters 48% of 61. Neither side has been much good at chasing the game. The Roosters haven’t won once after trailing at the break, the Knights have managed it a third of the time, and both have won every time they’ve led at half-time.

Prediction

This is the Roosters’ game to lose and the Knights’ game to steal. Sydney have the cleaner defence, the aerial weapon on the wing and a coach who has done this before. The “smart money” the Roosters. But Newcastle have just won three finals by 10, 2 and 8, love being outsiders and have Ponga in the mood. Losing Crossland hurts the defensive grind, but Holbrook’s group has been dealing with adversity all year. Expect the Roosters to lead at the break, the Knights to push late, and one Nawaqanitawase moment in the air to settle it.

Prediction: Roosters by 6

Match Squads

Named in the official NRL team list.

Extended squad and reserves: Roosters: Hugo Savala (18), Cody Ramsey (19), Benaiah Ioelu (20), Egan Butcher (22). Knights: Fletcher Hunt (18), Thomas Cant (19), Kyle McCarthy (20), Diesel Hagan (21).

Out: Connor Watson (Roosters, concussion) and Phoenix Crossland (Knights, suspension).

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